Biden’s Approval Rating Plummets: Will He Secure Re-Election?

Biden’s Approval Rating Drops: Will He Be Re-Elected?

According to a recent Gallup poll, President Biden’s approval rating has been steadily declining, raising questions about his chances of re-election. The poll shows that since August 2021, his approval rating has fallen below 50%. Over the past 18 months, his rating has dropped to as low as 37% at various points, including October and November 2023. The most recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll conducted in December revealed that Biden’s approval rating stood at 40%. The average of national polls calculated by 538.com in January consistently showed his approval rating below 40%.

Historical Context of Approval Ratings

Historically, first-term presidents who fail to reach a 50% approval rating within a year of the next election have struggled to secure re-election. Presidents like Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Donald Trump were unable to win re-election due to their low approval ratings. On the other hand, presidents like Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush, who had approval ratings above 50% a year before their re-election, mostly succeeded in winning a second term.

Limitations of Approval Ratings as Predictors

While approval ratings can provide some insight into a president’s re-election prospects, they are not infallible predictors. There have been cases where presidents with approval ratings below 50% within a year of the next election still managed to win re-election. Harry Truman, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama are examples of presidents who defied the odds. Conversely, some incumbent presidents who briefly exceeded 50% approval ratings in their final year, like Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, suffered significant defeats in the November elections.

Other Factors Influencing Election Outcomes

It is important to consider that election dynamics are complex and go beyond approval ratings alone. Factors such as global events and domestic economic trends often play significant roles in shaping election outcomes. Opinion polls and approval ratings cannot capture the entirety of this complexity. For instance, Harry Truman’s shocking re-election in 1948 defied the predictions and expectations of polling firms.

Other factors, such as consumer confidence and economic indicators, can also influence a president’s re-election prospects. Rising consumer confidence is often associated with increased trust in the government and the country’s top executives. The University of Michigan has been tracking consumer confidence statistics since the mid-1970s, and in some cases, it has proven to be a strong predictor. Additionally, economic indicators like unemployment rates can sway voters’ decisions. Presidents like Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama, who successfully overcame rising unemployment rates, won re-election.

The Complexity of Election Predictions

While approval ratings, consumer confidence, and economic indicators can provide useful insights, predicting election results remains a challenging task. The rise of social media as a significant information source and the growing influence of partisan politics have made future predictions even more intricate. When assessing the re-election prospects of a first-term president, it is crucial to consider traditional polling data alongside these factors.

Overall, President Biden’s declining approval rating raises questions about his chances of being re-elected. However, the final outcome will depend on a multitude of factors, including global events, economic trends, and the overall political landscape.